I have always believed bigger is better when it comes to winches. (not the female kind).
However, My dealer installed a 3500# winch when I asked for 4500#. I pointed it out and his reply was, "If it ever fails to pull you out we will replace it free". He went on to tell me they have never installed a 4500# winch because it is not necessary.
So, with that in mind I have a 3500# winch and I have used it 4 times. It hasn't even acted like it was straining. (shrugging my shoulders)
AND, I have the winch shown on my Foreman. It has also been used about 4 times.
I want to say that I would still rather have the 4500# winch, but I can't prove that I need it.
If I could get the 4500# model from Superwinch for less than $10 more, I'd do it.